Box 1: Sunset Nightjar (David Hobby)
Sunset Nightjar had the map in his heat and managed to get the job done, albeit taking a long time to get there. His time of 22.50 was only fair considering he went around relatively untouched. Box 1 is typically an advantage and the market suggests he is one of the key chances because of that, however he does run the risk of being buried back here with Starlight Panama in 2 and Curious Georgia in 4 likely to cross him early. I think his best chance would have come drawn further up the track. He’s certainly good enough but needs to be faultless.
Box 2: Starlight Panama (Paul Stuart)
Starlight Panama has been showing glimpses of her best and transferred her sound box manners to the 400m starting point in her heat, running a nice 2nd behind Sunset Mirage. She had to do some work to cross the inside division and to only finish 2 ¼ lengths behind Mirage considering the difference in runs was credible. The inside draw is ok but will have the same potential problems as Sunset Nightjar. She’s a big price however and it would be no shock to see her run into the placings. One for exotic players.
Box 3: Aston Costello (Kody Charles)
Aston Costello has taken to Mandurah like a duck to water and has been a terrific acquisition for trainer Kody Charles. He overcame a difficult draw two back to run down Curious Georgia and had a much smoother run in transit from box 8 last week, again proving too strong late to repeat the dose. The speed map reads much different for the final however now boxed inside Georgia with decent pace in boxes 1,2 as well. The question has to be asked how far will he get back? He has a huge motor and the 10.54 run home last week proves he can come from anywhere. If he gets some luck early, look out.
Box 4: Curious Georgia (Shayne Williams)
Curious Georgia has been a model of consistency since coming to Western Australia and she’s been unlucky to be run down her last two starts in hot time. Her time of 22.25 last week would have won four of the six heats and the two that went quicker had very economical runs. Box 4 never looks pretty on paper but I think she won the box draw. Her worst early split in her last 6 starts would still lead this race and there is only two or three dogs in the race who could run her down in perfect circumstances. She’s the one to beat for mine.
Box 5: Surf The Sun (Gary Nelson)
From winning a Grade 4/5 Country grade race in December to a Group 2 final in January! It’s been some rise for Surf The Sun and the youngster was able to produce when it mattered in his heat last week. He worked his way to the front after a fair beginning and fought off a challenge from Aussie Gem to salute in a new personal best time of 22.35. Granted, this is a steep rise in class and he will find it hard to find the front here but he does run a nice straight line and can handle an awkward draw so he’s in there with a punchers chance. Will need a lot to go right.
Box 6: Sunset Mirage (David Hobby)
Sunset Mirage had previously been racing well without running time but he managed to wind back the clock somewhat with a superb 22.18 performance off box 8 in his heat. Whilst the time was an equal best-on-night and he’s clearly flying, he was awarded a dream run with Aston Nero cutting hard left and therefore afforded plenty of room to do his thing out wide. You also must consider the chances of him backing up the 6.18 split he produced last week as well. Wedged in between speedsters Wise Barra and Surf The Sun, I struggle to see Mirage getting into a prominent position and for that reason I’m taking him on. If you see the map different for him however, he’s certainly going well enough.
Box 7: Wise Barra (Chris Halse)
Wise Barra was the bearer of bad news for those who tumbled into the well-backed Crumble Monelli last week, who he managed to run down despite being outpaced early. The Anniversary Cup winner has made a career out of punching above her weight and the Birthday Cup will be no different. Box 7 is a plus for her and I liked how she began off the mat last week. I was expecting better on the clock however and 11.68 to the second mark wouldn’t be cutting it here. Will they be too slick for her over 400? That’s the question.
Box 8: Uncle Tommy (Steve Withers)
Dual Group 1 Winner Uncle Tommy again regained form at the right time, holding off Barbeque Man (no mean feat) to win his way through to the final. Similar to the end of 2024, he was only fair off the mat but box 1 and his strength over the shorter trip saw him prove too good in the end. Those box manners with mid-trackers in boxes 5,6,7 pose obvious problems and is one I think who will drift considerably from the current $6 quote. I can’t have him, but I was saying very similar things heading into the Perth Cup final…
Reserve 1: Barbeque Man (Paul Stuart)
We had not seen Barbeque Man for three months prior to the heats where he was held out by Uncle Tommy late. He’ll clearly be better suited over 500 metres but if he was to get a run from an inside draw, the market will certainly respect him and he can only improve for the run last week. Place chance at least.
Reserve 2: Crumble Monelli (David Hobby)
Crumble Monelli’s chances of a three-peat were dashed by Wise Barra last week and he was given every chance from the red. His time of 22.45 wouldn’t be enough if he was to get a start and would be relying on a dream draw. He’s a champ, but he would need a perfect storm if he was to gain a start.
The Verdict – #4 Curious Georgia (numbers 4,2,3,1)